Cafe Progressive Resource Center - CafeProgressive.com
Social Justice Media, Politics, Education, Activism & Community
"Global Oil Depletion" a report on Peak Oil by the UK Energy Research Centre
The UK Energy Research Centre handles research into energy issues for all of Britain. On Oct 8, 2009 they released an indepth study of oil production, the ways to measure oil reserves, estimate current and future production, etc. They paint a picture of peak oil and the need to move to other energy resources. It's not that they are whole-hog embracers of peak oil, instead this is a serious and indepth explanation of the issues with eye opening charts, data and discussion. The following is my summarization of the main report, they also published 7 additional reports containing a flood of technical data.
"The oil industry must continually invest to replace the decline in production from existing fields. The average rate of decline from fields that are past their peak of production is at least 6.5%/year globally, while the corresponding rate of decline from all currently-producing fields is at least 4%/year. This implies that approximately 3 mb/d of new capacity must be added each year, simply to maintain production at current levels - equivalent to a new Saudi Arabia coming on stream every three years.
Decline rates are on an upward trend as more giant fields enter decline, as production shifts towards smaller, younger and offshore fields and as changing production methods lead to more rapid post-peak decline. As a result, more than two thirds of current crude oil production capacity may need to be replaced by 2030, simply to prevent production from falling. At best, this is likely to prove extremely challenging.
Oil reserves cannot be produced at arbitrarily high rates. There are physical, engineering and economic constraints upon both the rate of depletion of a field or region and the pattern of production over time. For example, the annual production from a region has rarely exceeded 5% of the remaining recoverable resources and most regions have reached their peak well before half of their recoverable resources have been produced. Supply forecasts that assume or imply significant departures from this historical experience are likely to require careful justification."
The U.S. DOE EIA produced this forecast of future oil production. Note the two wedges in the middle. They are marked "Crude Oil - fields yet to be found" and "Crude oil - fields yet to be developed". These wedges represent the production shortfall that's looming in front of us. The key phrase is "...yet to be..." because that is production capacity which does not currently exist. For it to exist new oil wells, pipelines, refineries, and transport ships have to be built. Often the new oil is far offshore so "oil well" is an expensive oil platform. Then there are the oil fields yet to be discovered. Where are they and why haven't they been found yet?
See:
"Global Oil Depletion" a report on Peak Oil by the UK Energy Resear...
The Global Oil Depletion Report: Launched 08.10.09
"The oil industry must continually invest to replace the decline in production from existing fields. The average rate of decline from fields that are past their peak of production is at least 6.5%/year globally, while the corresponding rate of decline from all currently-producing fields is at least 4%/year. This implies that approximately 3 mb/d of new capacity must be added each year, simply to maintain production at current levels - equivalent to a new Saudi Arabia coming on stream every three years.
Decline rates are on an upward trend as more giant fields enter decline, as production shifts towards smaller, younger and offshore fields and as changing production methods lead to more rapid post-peak decline. As a result, more than two thirds of current crude oil production capacity may need to be replaced by 2030, simply to prevent production from falling. At best, this is likely to prove extremely challenging.
Oil reserves cannot be produced at arbitrarily high rates. There are physical, engineering and economic constraints upon both the rate of depletion of a field or region and the pattern of production over time. For example, the annual production from a region has rarely exceeded 5% of the remaining recoverable resources and most regions have reached their peak well before half of their recoverable resources have been produced. Supply forecasts that assume or imply significant departures from this historical experience are likely to require careful justification."
The U.S. DOE EIA produced this forecast of future oil production. Note the two wedges in the middle. They are marked "Crude Oil - fields yet to be found" and "Crude oil - fields yet to be developed". These wedges represent the production shortfall that's looming in front of us. The key phrase is "...yet to be..." because that is production capacity which does not currently exist. For it to exist new oil wells, pipelines, refineries, and transport ships have to be built. Often the new oil is far offshore so "oil well" is an expensive oil platform. Then there are the oil fields yet to be discovered. Where are they and why haven't they been found yet?
See:
"Global Oil Depletion" a report on Peak Oil by the UK Energy Resear...
The Global Oil Depletion Report: Launched 08.10.09
Comment
About
© 2009 Created by CafeProgressive on Ning. Create a Ning Network!
You need to be a member of Cafe Progressive Resource Center - CafeProgressive.com to add comments!
Join this Ning Network